National losing confidence in Luxon?

A few days ago, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced that there will be a referendum on whether New Zealand should keep M.M.P.

It came in a surprise announcement that was made with no prior consultation of the National Party caucus, nor the Cabinet that he leads. With polls continuing to paint a tight race, it will also have National M.P.’s wondering how fit their leader is to continue his job.

The referendum, which was welcomed by Destiny Church leader Brian Tamaki, is also not without precedent . Mr Tamaki’s vision though might be less than popular:

• Reduce the size of Parliament to 65 M.P.’s
• Abolish M.M.P.
• Cut the cost of Government
• Return power to the local electorates
• End the “disproportionate influence of minor parties…

Mixed Member Proportional is not perfect. And during the Government of Prime Minister John Key, there was a referendum on it, but the system survived with a 57% vote in its favour. Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters called out the idea.

National Party M.P.’s appear to have been caught off guard, with mixed signals about whether they support the idea. Mr Luxon has either forgotten or chosen to ignore the previous referendum. His decision to announce a referendum also raises questions about whether he is looking for some kind of legacy moment like Mr Key was when he announced the ill-fated flag referendum in 2014. Like the M.M.P. referendum, this also saw the status quo retained.

What may cause M.P.’s in National – and his Cabinet – to lose confidence in him was his reckless description of the Cabinet as “Yahoo or Numpty from other parties around the table”. Despite the Prime Minister immediately clarifying that he did not think of any of the current Cabinet as such, the potential ramifications from careless talk will not have been lost on his more senior Ministers, particularly A.C.T. leader David Seymour and New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.

And here is where it gets gnarly for Mr Luxon. There ARE rumours that have been circulated by disgruntled National Party staffers indicating that the knives are indeed being sharpened once more. In a week where the latest poll shows National barely hanging onto power, I can see the likes of senior M.P.’s like Chris Bishop, Nicola Willis and others – despite their likely denials – busy checking out their proverbial knives.

As for Mr Luxon’s coalition partners, if it were not for M.M.P., would either of them exist? Probably not, or at least in a very different form to what we see. So, one should not be surprised at the comparative lack of support. It is also likely to raise suspicions amongst a public that generally view this Government as one of the least democratically minded of recent coalitions.

I have problems personally with Mixed Member Proportional, but think that the system on the whole works okay. Admittedly that might be more because I cannot think of a better system. I think returning to First Past the Post, or similar would see us having another conversation in the coming decades about what kind of democracy do we really want to be.

Thus M.M.P. should stay. I believe far better would be to:

• Lower the threshold for getting into Parliament to 4%
• Automatically enrol all citizens when they turn 18
• Invite new citizens to enrol at the time of gaining their citizenship if they have not already done so
• Require all donations above $100 to be recorded by the receiving party, and all donations to candidates or parties above $1,000 to be lodged with the Electoral Commission
• A $20,000 cap on candidate expenditure

As a Prime Minister acting more like a C.E.O. than a national leader, his language consistent with a board room and not one with a connection to the common man, Mr Luxon has never been the most popular person in New Zealand. But announcing policies without even talking to his coalition partners might be the straw that breaks the camels back.

Can National afford this?