National Party list oblivion one of elections quirks

There is a potential nightmare facing the National Party list. In an election where a significant overhang is possible, several of the most senior National Party M.P.s could lose their jobs. It is just one of a few political quirks in the 2026 election.

National Party List

For one reason or another, several of the party’s Members of Parliament have placed themselves on the list only. This means that they are not actively contesting their electorate. As National are not likely in the current polling to get more than – if any – list M.P.’s into Parliament, the following are at risk of losing their jobs:

• Nicola Willis – Minister of Finance. No. 2 on the National Party list, Mrs Willis has had a turbulent 3 year term. First it was implementing and then having to defend her aggressive cost cutting. Botching the replacement Cook Strait ferries and fending off rumours of a possible coup against her boss, have all added up.
• Chris Bishop – Attorney General. No. 3 on the National Party list, Mr Bishop is widely seen as National’s “Mr Fix It”. He has held several major portfolios this term including R.M.A reform, and most recently been Attorney General. Like Mrs Willis, Mr Bishop has had to deal with speculation that he might try to oust Prime Minister Christopher Luxon.
• Paul Goldsmith – Minister for Treaty Negotiations. No. 6 on the National Party list, a hardline Minister who has managed to annoy the tangata whenua of Aotearoa. Once he was known for wanting Auckland City Council to issue move on orders against homeless people. As such he has appealed to the right wing of the National Party spectrum.
• Gerry Brownlee – Speaker of the House. No. 9 on the National Party list, Mr Brownlee will be remembered as Minister for Christchurch Earthquake Recovery. A long term Member of Parliament since 1996 in Ilam, Mr Brownlee has had to deal with a divided 54th N.Z. Parliament. Shutting down the Maori Party revolt, an M.P. doing the haka and

The Parliament Overhang

This quirk is just one of several that are rearing their head in the 11th M.M.P election. Another is the existence of a Parliamentary overhang, which in the case of 2026 could blow Parliament out to 128 M.P.’s. The Parliament is designed to hold 124 M.P.s – 123 sitting M.P.’s plus the Speaker of the House. This poses some interesting challenges, not least that some of the physical seating in the debating chamber may have to be converted.

But the most notable – and least inspiring – one, irrespective of the result, someone called Chris(topher) will be the next Prime Minister.

Ugh.