N.Z. Defence Force spending priorities in 2026: My take

It is generally recommended that O.E.C.D. countries spend about 2% of the G.D.P. on defence. According to World Bank data, O.E.C.D. expenditure as a percentage of G.D.P. ranges from Israel spending 8.8% to Ireland, which spends 0.2% of its G.D.P. on its military establishment. It should be noted Israel is generally considered to be “at war” and its expenditure is occurring in a highly dynamic, volatile geopolitical environment. Ireland presumably relies on its place in the U.K. for its overall contribution.

New Zealand’s expenditure is about 1.2% of our G.D.P. (N.Z.$260 billion in 2024), and follows a long term pattern that has existed for most of the last 40+ years.

Expenditure on the Defence Force should increase to 2.0% of G.D.P. Much of the increase would be taken up on essential maintenance that has been deferred for too long on bases, facilities, training and reducing attrition. At the minimum all branches of the Defence Force should be able to complete all requisite training and interoperability programmes, both within the N.Z.D.F. and with Australia.

There are equipment items that need significant overhaul or complete replacement in the near future:

• The frigates need to be replaced with corvettes – when they were first acquired, there was discussion about whether two $470m ships were necessary, when Danish or French ships designs could be acquired for $150-200m;
• Work out what to do with the remainder of the army’s Light Armoured Vehicle fleet – do we need the L.A.V.III’s from Canada, or should we focus on smaller more mobile vehicles that our upgraded C-130J Hercules can more easily carry
• In announcing defence spending priorities it was mentioned that drones would be a priority for purchasing – no mention of possible models or quantity, or what their role would be
• I still have a view that a small number of combat jets should be purchased to maintain interoperability with Australia – most friends/allies seem to be leaning towards U.S. F-35 multi-role combat jets, aside from cost and politics, I see no use for them in New Zealand; if we were to get them (maybe a minimum of 5-10 years from now), the Swedish JAS39 Gripen or any successor it may have would be more suitable

More immediately though, as mentioned earlier, there is a comprehensive upgrade of Defence Force bases in progress. The upgrades affect Army Bases Burnham, Waiouru, Papakura and Linton; Airforce Base Ohakea and Navy Base Devonport.

The upgrades are long overdue. Some of the facilities date back to World War 2. Devonport is the only naval base in New Zealand. In a long narrow country surrounded by a vast E.E.Z., a second base is needed. The base would be best located either in Nelson or Port Chalmers, near Dunedin. This enables easier access to the Southern Ocean, better support to the Chatham Islands, should there be an emergency there and the Tasman Sea.

The previous Labour-led Government of former Prime Ministers Jacinda Ardern and Chris Hipkins replaced the C-130H Hercules and the P-3K Orion. They were working on the replacement for the B757-200 jets when the 2023 election occurred. This has since been confirmed as the Airbus A-321XL.

In the deteriorating global situation, where alliances and friendships are no longer what they used to be, New Zealand needs to view defence spending as an investment in the country’s long term wellbeing. For far too long it has been viewed as an expenditure item on the budget sheet. Whilst I have concerns about what this Government views as defence priorities, I do agree on the whole that the national security environment is no longer the benign thing former Prime Minister Helen Clark once described.