In 1947, noting the accelerating post-W.W.2. arms race between the U.S.S.R. and the western world, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists was established. Then, before climate change registered as a potential problem, it was strictly aimed at informing people of the issues and hazards around the development of nuclear weapons.
It most notably established an austere black and white clock notoriously called the “Doomsday Clock”, which is a measure of how close the world is to global catastrophe (0000 hours). For the first few years, it steadily crept towards midnight as an array of events stoked global tensions. Rising with the easing of risk through geopolitical changes, disarmament treaties and changes in Governments, and falling with rearmament, and abandonment of treaties, it has acted like a barometer of sorts. Now, at a historically low 23:58:30 – 90 seconds from global catastrophe – I am sure there are people wondering what the future looks like if there is a nuclear exchange.
Due to New Zealand’s low level manufacturing capability, goods requiring heavy industry, such as machine tools, vehicles and appliances will need to be imported. The country would need to both try to source fuel from countries it might not normally trade with such as Venezuela, but also be willing to develop alternative fuels from any source.
At the moment we are 100% reliant on fuel imports from overseas, something that – despite efforts to manufacture biofuel and recycle existing fuel sources – is unlikely to drastically change. At the moment biofuel makes up about 0.1% of our transport fuel. A mandate to reach 1.2% by 2023 was repealed when the Government of Prime Minister Chris Hipkins left office in 2023. Our economy, in its current state would very rapidly come to a violent halt with supply chains crippled, shortages of most daily consumed goods nation wide.
There is a risk of New Zealand being made to accept large numbers of refugees from countries that suffered more heavily – Australia, because of its willingness to be involved in American and British military enterprises, is a likely target. At the minimum, I think tactical warheads would probably be exploded over Australian Defence Force bases, even if Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth are spared. I would expect many of the 600,000-700,000 New Zealanders living in Australia to probably leave. They would need to be housed, fed and so forth. In the short term with the realisation that all nations in the world are in this together, there would be empathy, but I would expect that to expire rapidly and cause significant socio-economic tensions when it does.
Would we starve? Possibly. We can be certain the range of foodstuffs available in stores would be vastly diminished and the need to grow ones own vegetables, would go through the roof. Would we go back to the ox and plow? One obviously hopes not, but if imports of farm hardware like tractors and combine harvesters stopped, what are the alternatives?
Fallout does not care for political boundaries. Eventually the finer particulate would reach New Zealand. It would arrive on the prevailing westerly wind crossing the Tasman Sea. How much would depend on a bunch of factors, not least:
- How many megatons were exchanged – in the B.B.C. nuclear holocaust docu-drama, “Threads”, the total east-west nuclear exchange was 3,000 megatons; whilst most will be directed at targets in the northern hemisphere, some megatons worth of weapons will likely explode over southeast Asia and Australia
- Prevailing winds and ocean currents that pick up and circulate debris, contaminating the atmospheric and hydrological systems in the process
There are very good reasons not to become involved in other countries military misadventures. The more we are involved with the military activities of countries like the U.S., the more we expose ourselves as a potential target should W.W.3. break out, even if it is a comparatively small exchange with only tactical warheads used on targets of military or strategic value.
The world is being held hostage by five men: United States President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian President Narendra Modi.
While New Zealand cannot do much about them, it can do something about the current Government that appears to be willing lackeys of the United States. It can reaffirm its anti-nuclear stance. It can be the same inspiration it was to millions of people around the world fed up in the 1980s of rampant military spending, wars with no definable objectives.
Is it time to make everyone watch the B.B.C. nuclear holocaust docudrama Threads (the most terrifying thing I’ve ever seen on T.V.)? I hope not, but with short memories, I think people need a reminder just how awful nuclear weapons are. Is it time to raise our voices in protest?