For four years, the administration of Kamala Harris and Joe Biden had two purposes as far as the world was concerned. One, undo the damage caused by the first presidency of Donald Trump. Two, ensure that enough progress is made tackling the issues that made Mr Trump’s first presidency – and the 06 January 2021 violence – possible, to stop a second one happening.
On 05 November 2024, they failed.
Now the world, and Aotearoa/New Zealand are going to find out the price for that.
For Aotearoa/New Zealand, a Trump victory is very bad news. Mr Trump has long waged a protectionist war against fair/free trade, and a victory ensures that the likelihood of this campaign resuming after a four year hiatus is very real. It means that New Zealand exporters will be subject to tariffs that will be at least double digit percentages.
That is not the only economic bad news. New Zealand thrives on a trade system built up by agreements and an international structure overseen by the World Trade Organisation. Mr Trump has shown a naked contempt for the W.T.O., and for the very agreements that enabled such trade. And even though I am not in favour as a general rule of “free trade agreements”, which I think are highly rigged in favour of corporations, Mr Trump’s scorn for anything that does not meet his outlook is likely to come to the fore when dealing with attempts to achieve some kind of compromise.
It is not just from an economic standpoint that Mr Trump is going to be very bad news for New Zealand. Much as many of us would like to be free of the worst excesses of American culture wars, we are finding them increasingly difficult to ignore, thanks to the determination of certain pro-Trumpian elements to import them into New Zealand. One of those examples is Associate Minister of Justice (Firearms), Nicole Mckee, who is an A.C.T. Party list Member of Parliament. Despite her assertions to the contrary, Ms Mckee has been caught numerous times openly espousing contempt for firearms control in New Zealand, some of which have been caught on camera, and use language similar to that of the National Rifle Association of the United States.
Another example in the probable culture wars coming to New Zealand is the war on the L.G.B.T. community, in particular the transgender community. It has been marked by an explosive growth in the United States in laws being passed by politicians in Florida, Mississippi and other south/southeastern states trying to prohibit these people from existing – as ridiculous as that might (and does) sound. It is relevant in New Zealand because through a weakening of hate laws being promoted by the A.C.T. Party, more and more inflammatory rhetoric and actions are starting to be seen here.
And then there is the probable consequences for foreign policy. America has been in long term decline for the last nearly 4 decades now when it comes to global security, the international rule of law based on the International Court of Justice in the Hague and helping the global south of lesser developed nations moving forward. But in the last 8 years, we have witnessed a virtual declaration of war against those nations. From his attempt to block anyone from seven Muslim nations, to his open contempt for the now dead Middle East peace process and his admiration for some of the most contemptible people in positions of power, Mr Trump has shown how much damage he is willing to inflict on America’s standing in the free world.
And the icing on this perfectly rotten cake is that, after all of America’s talk about justice, Mr Trump is most probably going to pardon himself and his supporters from any culpability that they had in the 06 January 2021 violence. In the high probability that he does, it will be perhaps the surest note to the world not to take Americans seriously any more when they talk about justice, the rule of law and… democracy.
So, strap in Aotearoa. This is going to affect us, whether we like it or not.
Leftist Kiwi Writes 