
One week into a war that I honestly do not think anyone is going to “win”, two things have become very clear in New Zealand politics for me.
First and foremost, this is not a war New Zealand should have any part in. Aside from potentially making New Zealanders, our country and interests all potential targets, I see absolute no gain coming from it. I mean there will be no economic gain – living costs were high enough without the price of petrol and diesel having 12+ cents per litre added on to them virtually overnight. This means that there will be rises in prices at the supermarket and elsewhere as businesses try to offset the cost of getting products to the market. There will be no political gains. Our standing as a country with U.S. President Donald Trump was not high, even before the U.S. and Israel started to attack Iran – at best the current U.S. President generally considered to be unpredictable and vindictive, might have second thoughts about imposing tariffs on us; at worse he may incite his rabid base to think and speak ill of New Zealand.
The second – and one I want to focus on in this article – is that New Zealand has a robotic, out of tune, unpopular Prime Minister who I am not sure even his entire caucus 100% support. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is in danger of achieving a very rare feat in New Zealand politics: being the first National Party Prime Minister to not even make it to the end of his first term in office. Leading a party that in the most recent Taxpayer Union Curia poll, is not even in the 30% range, Mr Luxon – despite his caucus putting on a united front in support of him, was expected to finish this week by taking time out to consider his future with rumours swirling of an announcement today. Yet, despite that Mr Luxon said he had no thoughts about standing down.
Mr Luxon’s tendency to stick rigidly to scripted, pre-prepared answers is already well known. So too is his refusal to be interviewed on Q+A with Jack Tame. But last week when media briefly asked a couple of offbeat questions, he very quickly flustered. Contrast that with any of his Ministers when they speak to the media, the Leader of the Opposition, other Party leaders. The Sunday Star Times for 08 March had an editorial and two opinion pieces that should all read like warnings to Mr Luxon and his supporters. International media including Reuters seem to have caught onto the poorly performing New Zealand Government

In a time when we need a clear and decisive voice, we have none. Mr Luxon’s predecessors, Jacinda Ardern during the Christchurch mosques massacre emergency and John Key during the Christchurch earthquake were decisive. They reassured New Zealand at a time when we needed a steady, calming voice with confidence of a plan, that one existed. I am yet to see any of that with this Government.
In a time when New Zealanders want to know that we will not be dragged into a war that few support, and which many are aware of – event they do not know exactly what they are – carrying unforeseen dangers, we see a Prime Minister having to walk back poorly thought out commentary that suggested New Zealanders were okay with potential carpet bombing of Tehran and any action necessary to stop Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.
Mr Luxon might claim to have the confidence of his caucus, but does he have the confidence of New Zealanders when the need for a strong decisive voice has never been stronger? I am not so convinced.
