There are basically 6 months left in the 54th Parliament of New Zealand. In about mid-September, it will dissolve for the campaign period. The retiring M.P.’s will give their valedictory statements to Parliament. When that happens and Parliament dissolves, the writ will be done for the election and the campaign phase will begin in earnest.
Six parties in Parliament striving to show why you should vote for them in 2026. A bunch of small non-Parliamentary parties trying to rock the boat, with one probably having a realistic shot. It is a high bar to leap over for any party that lacks the support and access to the resources that the Parliamentary parties have, but try they must. Which brings me to the question:
What kind of Aotearoa New Zealand do you want to see post 2026 election?
- National are likely to continue to run on their current policy platform of aggressively cutting anything that they perceive to spend dollars, rather than to create or earn dollars – I have every confidence that Minister of Finance Nicola Willis will deliver a fiscal budget in May that promises little or no relief for anyone who is not business owner, a top bracket taxpayer or potential investor; the first term of the Christopher Luxon-led Government is most likely going to come to an end in much the same way that the first term of the Jim Bolger-led National Government in 1993 did
- Labour can win this election, but they will need to basically have a revolution between now and November, which is something I simply cannot see happening under leader Chris Hipkins – the revolution would need to be in 3 parts: clearing their bench of “deadwood”; completely rewriting their manifesto and taking a much more aggressive message than anything coming out of Mr Hipkins’ office in the last 2 years
- A minor party surges in the election – but who will it be? A New Zealand First dominated coalition? An even bigger swing to the right with A.C.T. taking a leading role? The Greens (FINALLY) get their act together and become the 20 seat party I think that they are capable of being?
Or, a flash of teal from The Opportunity Party?
Blinking in the control room of the National Party must be a bank of red lights showing the status of Mr Luxon’s Government in terms of policy. Next to them is a cluster flashing orange for the dicey polls that show a potential dead heat, and another for the likelihood of his allies supporting National should it be able to form a Government again in November. It is not quite going every shade of red, but there should be enough warning lights flashing for the strategists and campaign teams to realise that the party is in critical danger of being the first National-led Government to only last a term.
Or are they? If one replicated the above control room for Labour, I do not imagine the situation being any better – and in some ways it is almost worse. Mr Hipkins does not seem to have learnt anything, and nor do the governance board from the last three years. No one seems to be rushing to clear the non-performing M.P.’s out to make room for new talent. No one seems to be telling the Leader of the Opposition his sound bites seem pretty mellow.
In this election, I am wondering if New Zealanders – having killed off a centre-left Government in 2023 that was trying its best with necessary, but unpopular policies to create a healthier country – will double down with more support for A.C.T. and New Zealand First, or try something new. I would be okay with the Green Party picking up more seats and possibly getting to 20, but the party seems determined to hang onto its immature elements, and continue giving off childish vibes instead of being the adults in the room.
Or will something truly incredible happen? An act of bravery that the collective electorate has so far not yet shown a willingness for: a new party in Parliament. The Opportunity Party got 2.2% of the Party vote in the 2023 election. Its then leader Raf Manji was runner up in the Ilam electorate. It has the potential to fill the centrist floor once occupied by New Zealand First, and at the same time can campaign on business and environmental issues. The new leader Qiulae Wong has shown that she understands this in her most recent video. Her State of the Nation speech on Saturday addressed aspects of the socio-economics and the environmental needs of New Zealand. The Meet the Leader evenings around New Zealand last year were full to capacity with extra chairs sometimes having to be put out.
I would like to think that Te Pati Maori will hang onto its seats in Parliament, but if it cannot sort out its internal ruptures then it risks ceding them to the Greens and maybe Labour.
Leftist Kiwi Writes 