A few days ago I heard that support for Labour had risen to 38%, whilst needing Te Pati Maori to help them into the Beehive. This continues the slow but general upwards creep of the centre-left in New Zealand, as voters struggle with living costs, a failing economy, a huge number of loved ones and friends moving overseas and an assault on our environmental reputation.
It gave me pause for thought about where I think Parliament really stands if an election were held today. Without further ado, below are the number of seats I expect the parties to hold in the New Zealand Parliament (% of Party vote/Seats in House):
- A.C.T. 8% / 10 seats
- N.Z.F. 7% / 8 seats
- T.P.M. 3% / 4 seats (on assumption of winning Maori Electorate seats)
- Greens 9% / 11 seats
- Labour 37% / 44 seats
- National 33% 39 seats
As you can see there is a bit of a hung Parliament situation here. I expect given the disgruntlement of a number of New Zealanders, dissatisfied with the state of Parliament and contemplating one of the micro-parties, that there will be a bit of leakage. With the exception of The Opportunity Party (see below), there is no realistic likelihood of any of them threatening to get into Parliament.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins might still be keeping a low profile, but that is part of a careful broader strategy not to invest too much too soon in election campaigning. Despite announcing a broad outline of their tax policy a few weeks ago, Mr Hipkins did not go into specific details – the nitty gritty of which will no doubt wait a few more months. The Capital Gains Tax announcement will give Labour voters some confidence, but his decision to go with a narrow one instead of the comprehensive C.G.T. that tax experts are recommending, means that extra detail in a few months will be essential to swinging voters around.
National leader, and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, has bigger problems. After two years and an economy stubbornly refusing to take the tried and failed neoliberal medicine of austerity through cuts in Government services and spending, it is necessary for them to swallow a dead rat that few in the party, and even fewer in their support parties are willing to contemplate: neoliberalism is killing itself. On top of that, being a Prime Minister who talks word salad in Parliament, to the media and even to people on the street and also comes off as completely out of touch has got to be concerning to even the most ardent National supporters.
If or when Te Pati Maori end their civil war, is an interesting question. The disintegration of the caucus has resulted in two M.P.’s being expelled, and whose political careers are now all but over unless they manage to run successful campaigns in Maori electorates next year. The rest appear to be in disarray and one can ask, despite attempts to mediate a truce, if more expulsions are coming. For Labour and the Greens to form a Government, their support and numbers in Parliament are critical.
A.C.T. continue to outperform most metrics that they were being measured against. Its leader, David Seymour, has an active caucus who are all trying to get their names into the media. All are making – or trying to make – substantive contributions to coalition policy making. But alarm bells are ringing in some sections. A.C.T. have shown in certain areas, where one would normally expect them to flex their supposed libertarian principles of small government, to be surprisingly Orwellian. Mr Seymour has not been able to shrug off the Atlas Network links that opponents have exposed, and his Regulatory Standards Bill has become a highly contentious piece of legislation that many see as a corporate power grab.
Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson has returned from her breast cancer treatment, and co-leader Chloe Swarbrick will be looking forward to Christmas after a tough year. With all the principles that the Greens stand for under sustained attack by this Government, it has been a tough year, underlined by her ejection from Parliament in August. Her promise in January to make the Greens grow up appears to have been undermined by some of her own commentary. Next year will require a more disciplined approach if they are to be in the Beehive in 2027.
New Zealand First had been rising in popularity until the latest poll. At one point they were on 12% which would have given them 14 Members of Parliament, their largest number since 1996. At the same time though, the criticism of them, and in particular of Shane Jones, whose aggressive anti-environmental tone has found him plenty of critics, and Winston Peters whose caucus – Mr Jones included – appear to have forgotten the Fifteen Founding Principles on which the party was founded. An election today would see them largely unchanged on 8 M.P.s.
But it is outside of Parliament that could be the most interesting mover and shaker in 2026. Just off a rebrand, The Opportunity Party have introduced a new leader named Qiulae Wong who was quick to point out the need for tax reforms. The party has long favoured a Land Value Tax, and a reform of social welfare to enable a Universal Basic Income (U.B.I), which caught 2.2% of the vote at the 2023 election. And unlike some of the other parties, it is not a fan of the left-right pendulum politics that is slowly wrecking this country.
Leftist Kiwi Writes 