As we progress into the 7th year of this decade, one thing that has been striking for me is the number of natural hazard events that have occurred here. And how, despite the frequency, the Government seems wedded to the same levels of investment and concern.
Which is a concern.
Since the start of the decade, Canterbury has been subject to at least four Metservice red warnings – not counting severe thunderstorms – for damaging winds and/or heavy rain. They have caused millions of dollars in damage each, and introduced elements of hazard not often seen in Canterbury. On top of this, there have been several other orange level events that have occurred in circumstances where the repairs from earlier storm events were still being undertaken.
In May and July 2021 two red warnings were issued. The May-June 2021 event was a prolonged southeasterly heavy rainfall event that caused all medium and large rivers in Canterbury, except the Rakaia, Rangitata and Waiau Rivers to have significant flood events, involving breakouts in many cases. Across 29-31 May some places had rainfall with an annual exceedance probability of 0.5% (1:200 years). These rightfully raised questions about who is responsible for footing the repair bill during avulsion events where so much water is coming down a river that it starts carving out a new course, or reclaims old channels.
Two months later, in the coldest month of the year, temperatures were warm enough aloft that a Metservice red warning for heavy rain that would be rare even in the middle of summer, was issued. Across the next four days 900mm of rain – possibly more in some places fell in West Coast river catchments. Spillover into Canterbury lakes and headwaters was high enough that the Rakaia and Waimakariri Rivers recorded flood levels with an annual exceedance probability of 10% (1:10 years). The flooding on West Coast though was something else. The Buller River reached a level where water began backing up in Westport, causing hundreds of homes to flood – something that has not happened in decades.
In September 2021, the red warning struck again with severe northwest gales forecast for inland Canterbury. My brother and his wife can testify that this event happened. They were living in Rakaia Gorge, which is aligned northwest-southeast, and has a locality appropriately named Windwhistle near it. At my brother’s place a heavy wood table on the deck was bodily shunted up against the house, a farm barn that was converted. (They put the house on the market the following day and were gone in 2 weeks). While this kind of event has happened in the past, to come so closely after two other serious red warning events was extreme.
Resource management planning and liability for consequences downstream, was called into question after Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 brought down entire hillsides, with large volumes of slash from forestry among the mud and other debris. It also raised insurance hassles as much of Hawkes Bay and Gisborne in particular has very slip prone hills with little or no vegetation, that erodes easily. Repeated debris flows and other events associated with storms impacting denuded slopes have made getting insurance a challenge in one of the poorest parts of New Zealand.
One more event happened in October 2025. Following a very wet September and early October, where northwesterly rainfall events impacted the Southern Alps once a week every week for nearly 2 months, a back-to-back pair of northwest storms hit on 22-23 October 2025. Winds reached 180km/h in several parts of inland Canterbury, bringing down entire shelter belts and causing plantation damage. At the same time rainfall landing on already wet catchments caused the Rakaia River to have a flood event with a probable A.E.P. of 2-3%. More notable was the Waimakariri River, just north of Christchurch – and on whose floodplain the city sits – which had an A.E.P. of about 2%/ (1:50 years; 2,769m3 per second at its peak).
In July 2025 following flooding in Tasman, the Government said it was looking at stopping the idea of guaranteed buyouts. In November 2025, the Government announced it was going to defer increasing the Natural Hazards Levy until after the 2026 election. Last week, AA Insurance said that they would stop issuing insurance policies for Westport homeowners, and there is the possibility of other insurance companies following suit. This might not be specific to Westport, but for example may include other locations such as Franz Josef, or at risk coastal locations in Coromandel. Around the same time, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said that the taxpayer should no longer assume buyouts are going to be possible for high risk properties. Two days ago, Minister of Finance Nicola Willis confirmed that no change to the Natural Hazard Commission levy would happen before the election.
A sign that this Government would not be so empathetic towards property owners and communities after a disaster can be traced back to Cyclone Gabrielle. Following Cyclone Gabrielle, I thought that there would be a general cross party multi-partisan approach to supporting immediate relief work, particularly in Hawkes Bay, Gisborne, Rotorua, and Bay of Plenty. Instead there was muck raking, finger pointing and other unnecessary innuendo. The fact that controlling inflation instead of adequately funding organizations doing essential work, such as managing the disaster fund is more important to this Government, should be a warning to all New Zealanders, not to expect assistance when a major disaster strikes.
I am concerned that this laissez faire approach that is still continuing 15 years after the Canterbury and Christchurch earthquakes is setting us as a nation up to fail badly when the next disaster hits. It might not be a storm. It is very well known that we have faultlines, including but not limited to the Alpine Fault that are at or very near the end of their repose periods in between earthquakes. It might be a large eruption of a central North Island volcano. Irrespective of what/when the next disaster is – it could even be the current states of emergency being declared in places like Otorohanga right now – the Government needs to be realistic about disaster mitigatory planning. Following the four R’s of dealing with disasters – Readiness, Reduction, Response and Recovery – is essential. How one deals with the Readiness and Reduction, will strongly influence how the Response and Recovery go.
Just ask Christchurch.
Leftist Kiwi Writes 