As the world grapples with the fact that the United States just punched international law in the head with its kidnapping of Nicolas Maduro, I am contemplating what the year 2026 will bring for a world looking dicier by the month.
I cannot imagine a man probably more universally despised now, than Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu. His campaign to turn all of Palestine into Israeli territory continues unabated. The ceasefire that never happened, was in fact just a quiet period whilst Israel and the U.S. changed the blood-stained disguise hiding the true intention that Palestine ceases to exist. Israel’s bombing of other countries, its effective annexation of the Golan Heights – completely ignored by New Zealand media, among others – is a demonstration that Israel is after land and resources. Just like the next one.
I had not a shred of doubt this time last year that Donald Trump’s return to power when former President Joe Biden left office would be bad. On not a single day since, has his recklessness, lust for power, contempt for international/domestic law shown the slightest sign of abating. If anything it has intensified. There is absolutely nothing good that can be said about the direction he is taking the United States, the implications it has for New Zealand or the world at large. With just over 3 years left on the clock before his second term ends, I can see his tenure getting much worse.
In the United States, the same mechanism that gave Mr Trump power, may also be the only thing that seriously curbs it. Mid-term elections, where Congressional and Senate seats are up for grabs are due on the first Tuesday of November. Will the apparently rapacious appetite for conflict and division that Mr Trump is sowing be curbed by the loss of key allies in Congress and the Senate, or will the more rabid elements of American politics prevail and enable Trumpism to embed itself even more firmly into the fabric of American society?
How long can Russia continue its military misadventure in Ukraine? It started on 24 February 2022 and has ebbed and flowed without any major advances for most of the last four years. Figures vary widely, but most private institutes agree that Russia has lost at least 250,000 personnel, compared to Ukraine’s 60,000-100,000. The World Bank estimates even if combat ceased right now, reconstruction and recovery would cost Ukraine U.S.$525 billion. For comparison, when the Marshall Plan was unveiled 80 years ago for a post war recovery in Europe, it set aside U.S.$1 billion. Maybe the war will eventually peter out, with Russia simply getting tired of it, like it did in Afghanistan in 1988, but I see little prospect of it ending in 2026.
With his Venezuelan ally Nicolas Maduro in an American cell with his wife, there must be days now when Russian President Vladimir Putin wakes up at night wondering if he is next. I sincerely doubt it despite all the harm he has caused. It would effectively be the death knell of international law, and even if it is for his own games, I suspect Mr Trump still has use for Mr Putin in the Kremlin. In the time that Mr Putin has been in the Kremlin across the last 25 years, the living conditions of Russians have not demonstrably improved. The state level corruption is as bad now as it was in the 1990s. Organized crime transitions through Russia with comparative ease, and anti-regime dissidents tend to “accidentally fall through windows” (read murdered).
The three amigos, with vastly differing agendas, are probably the three most disliked politicians on the planet at the moment. All three, despite none of their countries recognising the legal authority of the International Criminal Court in the Hague, Netherlands, would make worthy contenders for criminal of the decade. None, despite Mayor of New York Zohran Mamdani promising to arrest Mr Netanyahu – should he attend a United Nations conference – are likely to realistically captured, with both Israel and the United States likely to threaten violence against any nation that does should their respective leaders be caught.
But beyond these three, what else is going on in the world? Who is doing what?
The Sudan’s -both Sudan and South Sudan – are in the grip of another bloody civil conflict. This one has been highlighted for the fact that Chinese military grade armaments are playing a significant role in the casualty count. Media seem to be comparatively disinterested in it despite the threat that it poses to other nations.
Anti-Indian sentiment also seems to be on the rise, despite India not having invaded anyone. It’s burgeoning population, at 1.3 billion people, means 1 in about every 6 people on the planet are Indian, or have Indian links. It seems pretty prevalent on social media websites, such as X (Twitter), where the “For You” suggestions are frequently spouting the most vile hatred of Indians, Indian culture and history, asking what contributions that they make to the global community.
The climate crisis is getting no better. There is increasing consensus, that the 1.5 degree Celsius limit is not going to be met, never mind bettered. Even 2.0 degrees Celsius is now in significant doubt among many climate commentators. The unilateral withdrawal of the United States climate negotiations is probably for the final time. In the remaining three years of the Trump Administration, it seems likely that American support for its continuation – even as a non-American concept is doomed to fail. I personally, would love to see it somehow take off and thrive, but that would mean persuading the B.R.I.C.S. (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) bloc to join, which they are not likely if their main antagonist is not present.
And yet, despite all of the doom and gloom, I have heard one significant piece of good news, from a very unlikely source. China has completed ratification of the Global Ocean Treaty. This means that China, like the other signatories who have ratified it will be bound by it when G.O.T. enters into legal force on 17 January 2026.
Happy 2026…
Leftist Kiwi Writes 