The New Zealand General Election is NOT “in the bag”

A truly astonishing thing to have happen occurred earlier this week, when Prime Minister Christopher Luxon went on Newstalk Z.B. Whilst talking to host, Mike Hosking, an avowed National supporter, he made two incredible claims:

• That he is a better Prime Minister than he was at the start of the year
• That the 2026 General Election, for which a date has not been set – and most likely will not be before next year – is in the bag

How are these claims incredible?

I will start with the claim that he is a better Prime Minister. According to polls across the country, this is one of the most unpopular first term New Zealand Governments to ever exist. A Prime Minister with little or no rapport with ordinary New Zealanders, appears to be hopelessly out of touch across the full spectrum of political issues ranging from crime, to living costs, education and health, the environment and democracy. His “I’m wealthy and I’m sorted” sneer would have been seen as particularly troubling for those strategists and more moderate National Party members, who know the importance of the centre.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was shown to be tanking around the same stage of her tenure, but then a terrorist attack, a volcanic eruption and a pandemic struck one after the other. In each case she seized the initiative – the day after the attack, she Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters and Leader of the Opposition Simon Bridges all flew to Christchurch in a show of solidarity to meet, support the victims families and to answer questions. Six days later, a ban on AR15 and Military Style Semi-Automatics was announced. Similarly decisive action followed the eruption of Whakaari/White Island in December 2019 and the outbreak of COVID-19 in New Zealand in March the following year.

It is true that Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has not had a barrage of events like that in which he could show his leadership qualities. It is also true that leadership manifests in different ways. Whereas Ms Ardern took a “hard and fast” approach to COVID-19, leadership in other crises might very well be to say “hang on a minute, are we sure that this is the best approach?”; “I’m not doing this ________ on principle”.

But the biggest problem that I see is this: Mr Luxon simply does not come across as identifying with ordinary New Zealanders just trying to make sure that they can live in their budget.

And then, there is this truly incredible idea that the election has already been won by National. This is the more incredible claim because, aside from having 7-8 months Parliamentary sitting time next year before it dissolves for the election, the actual election date itself is still probably over a month away from being set – Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern set the 2023 Election date in January 2023. Previous Prime Ministers have generally announced the date early in the year their elections was due.

But what makes it so incredible is that Mr Luxon thinks it is already won. When a person says that they have something “in the bag”, it is generally understood to mean that whatever they were trying to achieve has happened. Such confidence is very dangerous, especially when the Government one is leading is as unpopular as this one is, when the Ministers are so openly flaunting their contempt for due processes, and decorum. And it is not just Christopher Luxon that is putting the Government at risk – most of his most senior Ministers, ranging from Deputy Prime Minister David Seymour to Minister of Energy and Resources, Shane Jones, are openly attacking anyone on social media who is brave enough to push back at the policies they are espousing.

But it goes further than this. As New Zealand is not even in the year that the next election is expected to happen, and the parties – including National – have not settled on their candidate line ups, their policy platforms and general strategies, this is an incredibly bold call to make. And it doesn’t help if recent history is anything to go by that election years can be absolutely riddled in scandal – the Greens nearly tore themselves to bits in 2017 when the then co-leader Metiria Turei admitted lying about taking social welfare, and had not paid it back. In 2020 it was the turn of the National Party to rocked by scandals, leading it to suffer its second worst election result in history. A.C.T. is another party that is not a stranger to this, when in 2014 it probably denied itself another Member of Parliament after then leader Jamie Whyte admitted that he did not see what the problem with incest is.

Obviously there are still several months to go before the election, irrespective of when the date is set. But if there is anything else that New Zealanders are not a big fan of, it is over smart, cocky politicians who think that they are entitled to win an election. Mr Luxon has not gone that far, but his statements thus far suggest he is heading in that direction.