Over the past several years, as international tensions have risen around the world, many New Zealanders have been wondering how much longer we can try to look the other way and pretend they do not affect us. Last week, when Chinese PLA-Navy warships, including at least one frigate entered the Tasman Sea and began conducting live fire exercises, we got our answer.
The Chinese PLA-Navy exercises in the Tasman Sea come just weeks after the Cook Islands announced – to New Zealand’s fury – that it had inked an agreement with the Government of China to enable exploration and research of seabed minerals. The deal is likely to see an increase in Chinese marine investment in the form of ships, docks and wharves as it has opened up Chinese access to parts of the Pacific basin that were not previously accessible.
China’s expansionism is nothing new and has been happening for a generation. From before President Hu Jintao, and now Xi Jinping, China has been embarking on an expansionist programme, economically, politically and militarily. It seeks to present itself as a credible alternative in the Asia Pacific region to the United States, which it has on occasion referred to as hegemonic.
For New Zealand, this can be considered a challenge. And it is. But it is also one that we have handled with considerable naivety over the past few decades. We have been too laissez faire with our approach to south Pacific geopolitics, the global security situation and our interests. We have for far too long assumed that a hodge podge response, and a shoe string budget of aid would suffice for keeping our small Pacific Island neighbours happy. New Zealand has failed to pay attention to the movements by China into this part of the Pacific, despite warnings from people like Professor Anne-Marie Brady, a University of Canterbury researcher on China. It has paid not much more than lip service to problematic developments, such as a Chinese surveillance ship passing through Cook Strait a few years ago and the fact that one of the major suppliers of cellphones to the New Zealand market – Huawei – was linked to the Chinese Government.
New Zealand’s foreign aid budget, is a bit like the Defence budget described below. Run down, and in need of long term investment, instead of random hodge podge expenditure. As the Pacific island nations are what commentators might consider to be our backyard, and our national security becomes exposed by not adequately supporting them. I have long thought that 80-90% of our total budge should be expended on these islands because when they are strong, our security is strong, but also it flows back to them because New Zealand can do more to help.
On top of this, a long term failure to see the New Zealand Defence Force as anything other than an expenditure item on the Government finances, has meant that the Defence Force is now quite run down. Decades of underfunding have meant that we are now at the point where we only spend 0.7% of the G.D.P. per annum on defence. The international recommendation is for 2.0%. And whilst I welcome the Government announcement to increase defence spending, I have the same questions that I have had for decades. Is this going to be a one off spend up, or a sustained long term investment? It is a question that is important because, before we invest in new equipment, we need to have the man power available to do the job and we need to have thought through the priorities for expenditure.
All three branches of the Defence Force need investing in. The army needs to replace the LAVIII’s and find replacements for them – I’d suggest giving them to Ukraine, but I think that the Government would want a bit of financial return on them; the Navy will soon need to find a replacement for its two A.N.Z.A.C. frigates, which whilst great were an unnecessarily expensive purchase, which made buying a third a bit of a political minefield. And the Airforce, whilst doing very well out of the last Government with new transport and surveillance planes, now needs to consider replacing the two 757’s.
So, where to from here is a very good question for both the New Zealand Defence Force, and our relationship with our Pasifika neighbours. Will we learn from the last few weeks and start working out a long term plan for the Defence Force, and what we expect it to do? Will we ramp up aid to the South Pacific and look at why the Cook Islands behaved in the manner that they have?
Or will we assume that hugely consequential attitude of “she’ll be right”?
Leftist Kiwi Writes 