In 1991 at Primary School an informal survey conducted in the senior classes (Year 5 and 6) asked students what country they most wanted to visit. At a time when Miami Vice, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Melrose Place were taking off on television and M.C. Hammer and other artists, the vast majority answered “America”.
In 1945, American influence was at its peak. It had just helped the Allies defeat the most destructive regime in history and stop the aggressive imperial ambitions of another. With the world teetering on the brink of the Cold War, and nuclear weapons having introduced us to the terrifying prospect of annihilation, it was the one nation that could stand up to the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
In 1991, the increasingly rotten house that was the U.S.S.R. finally imploded under the weight of its own corruption and ideological incompetence. The Western world celebrated the end of the Cold War. The “evil empire” was gone and the Russian threat, much diminished.
America was the undisputed world power. It and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization partners could have helped rehabilitate Russia, which would have gone some way towards reducing tensions long term. It could have cut defence spending significantly as there was no significant threat – China’s military, whilst modernizing was still light years away from where it is today and still functioned largely on a philosophy of numerical superiority. If it had stopped C.I.A. interference in Afghanistan, the 11 September 2001 attacks might not have happened. If it had viewed education, health and social welfare as investment matters and not expenditure matters in fiscal budgets it might not have had the glaring socio-economic disconnect that now reaches danger levels in some states.
America’s decline has been well signalled for decades. An eternally increasing military budget for national security concerns that have in many cases had to be manufactured to justify it, has come at the expense of nearly everything. Instead of being the case that the military complex existed to enable wars to be fought and a peaceful deterrence to be maintained, wars are now fought to justify the continued existence of it.
American global hypocrisy has always been legendary. The Government champions freedom and democracy, but props up some of the most corrupt and human rights hating regimes in the world; wants free trade with no barriers anywhere, but lets its internal politics block deals with a heap of countries.
And internally the nation whose unity was on display for the world to see after 11 September 2001, is fraying. To the point that Congressional representatives want a national divorce; that identity politics and guns have hijacked the legislative agendas and racial politics across the midwest show how little progress has been made in solving one of the biggest challenges to American society.
Are things really that bad?
In terms of the relationship between New Zealand and the United States, most people seem to agree that the United States is in some kind of decline. We cannot agree on who/what are the causes or what needs to happen to undo the decline. Nearly all though agree that come what will in November 2024, this may be the last seriously democratic election in the United States and that if this is the case then the long-term trend of decline is likely to become terminal.
In 2023 the Brennan Center for Justice released a report showing how many states were enacting more restrictive voting legislation. All of the states shown as having enacted changes up to 10 October 2023, were Republican. States with predominantly Republican legislatures are generally socio-economically poorer off than Democrat states. Their legislative priorities are more about individual rights such as access to guns, gender identity and abortion than anything that might improve health, education, jobs.
Gun violence is a major factor in people making choices to leave the United States, as well as fear of what will happen if Mr Trump wins the 2024 Presidential Election. Younger people in particular have come to know a fear that is unique to American youth: the idea that you might get shot dead at school, in a place that you are meant to feel safe and protected. The inherent failure of authorities to address the violence and the National Rifle Association scaremongering that
But perhaps the surest sign of potentially terminal decline in the United States – short of Mr Trump winning the election – is the number of Americans who believe that a “national divorce” of states, potentially down Republican/Democrat lines, is necessary. In other words, secession. The American Historical Association says that it is not possible for a state to secede, which might be true, but it will not be enough to stop a State determined to do so from trying. Which raises a question that has probably crossed many a mind:
Could an attempted secession trigger a 2nd American Civil War, or another insurrection?
I have been to the United States five times. In 1992, 2004 and 2015 I visited on holiday. Across those three holidays I have visited Hawaii, California, Nevada, drove through Utah in a day, Wyoming, Idaho and Washington. I attended my brother’s wedding in San Francisco in 2013 and a friend’s wedding in 2017. Across all of these trips, the Americans I met were very friendly and helpful, except for the Bank of America in Hayward, which would not let me change travel cheques into dollars. I got to meet people from a diverse range of backgrounds, some quite wealthy and others quite working class and all curious to hear about this traveller from halfway around the world.
I have friends and my brother has American in-laws in Minnesota. We don’t all agree on their politics, which is quite fine, but generally agree that the long term future is not looking great for the U.S.
How bad is a question that will probably be best answered after the November election, but if the rumblings from the Trump camp are anything to go by, the answer is VERY.
Leftist Kiwi Writes 